The transition from gasoline-powered vehicles to electric vehicles requires precise assessments of greenhouse gas emissions throughout the entire life cycle of the vehicles. The dissertation presented above is based on scientific studies that compare gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) with electric vehicles (BEVs), incorporating ethanol into the comparison—a renewable fuel whose emissions are substantially lower than those of gasoline—to demonstrate that such a transition may not be necessary, as ethanol-powered vehicles can emit fewer greenhouse gases than their electric equivalents, given the significant emissions of these gases associated with electricity generation. An electric vehicle is as clean (or dirty) as the electricity grid of the country where it is used. Since there are countries whose electricity mixes rely on highly polluting raw materials like coal or gas for power generation, the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from an electric vehicle must necessarily extend to the electricity mixes of each country where the vehicle is used.

Flex-fuel vehicles, capable of operating with any proportion of gasoline and ethanol, allow for a highly accurate equivalence between the pure gasoline models used in the studies and their flex-fuel equivalents operating exclusively on ethanol. This makes it feasible to compare the analyzed electric vehicles with ethanolpowered vehicles. In Brazil, flex-fuel technology dominates the light passenger vehicle market, with ethanol accounting for half of the fuel consumption in these vehicles.

Brazil holds a privileged position on this topic, with significant production of ethanol from sugarcane and ample availability of arable land to expand production. Such expansion would enable the complete substitution of domestic gasoline consumption with ethanol and also allow for the export of ethanol to other countries, helping them achieve their greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in the transportation sector, which currently accounts for 25% of the global total. Additionally, increasing exports from the agribusiness sector would enhence the Brazil’s trade surplus. 

Regarding sugarcane cropping system, initial emissions resulting from the removal of baseline vegetation and ethanol production processes can be offset by avoiding greenhouse gas emissions from not using gasoline (replaced by ethanol), allowing for the gradual recovery of the emitted carbon over time, as detailed in the dissertation. Furthermore, studies such as "Behavior of Different Management Systems as a Source or Sink of Carbon in Relation to Cerrado Vegetation," by E. J. Corazza, J. E. Silva, D. V. S. Resck, and A. C. Gomes, indicate that Cerrado vegetation—predominant in the Northeast—can increase its carbon density through direct planting of certain crops, so that sugarcane crops in this biome could promote, not emissions, but capture of atmospheric carbon, acting as a net carbon sink rather than a source of emissions from isolated deforestation.

The expansion of Brazilian ethanol production for domestic use and export to other countries would help reduce global emissions in the automotive sector without the cost of electrifying entire vehicle fleets. Given that the Cerrado in the Northeast can be used for agricultural expansion with reduced potential for emissions from land use, policies promoting ethanol production in the region—one of Brazil's most needy areas—through family farming and monoculture would increase local families' income, providing a notable global contribution toward achieving the Paris Agreement's emission reduction targets.

School of Public Policy and Government (FGV EPPG)
Researchers: Matheus Costa e Leonardo Vicente Evaldt da Silva

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