Greenhouse gas emissions are at the center of public policy debates due to their link to climate change. It is estimated that a large portion of carbon emission growth will occur in developing countries, especially in the agricultural sector, which accounts for one-third of all carbon emissions.

Using econometric frontier methods and the integration of multiple data sources (including satellite data), this project will conduct two connected studies to measure how commodity booms and the opening of agro-industrial plants affect (1) carbon emissions and (2) the effectiveness of climate mitigation policies.

Economic shocks such as commodity booms and the establishment of agro-industrial plants can lead to production decisions associated with deforestation and fire outbreaks, resulting in greenhouse gas emissions (carbonizing factors). On the other hand, they may also lead to productive responses that mitigate emissions (decarbonizing factors), such as increased productivity in agricultural activities.

The project aims to determine how booms and agro-industrial plants impact net carbon emissions, considering a range of carbonizing and decarbonizing factors. It will also investigate the effects of these shocks on farmers’ participation in the ABC Program, a federally subsidized credit initiative for implementing sustainable agricultural practices and investments.

Researcher: Daniel da Mata
São Paulo School of Economics (FGV EESP)

Learn more